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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  October 30, 2013 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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at about 2.49%. we are waiting from hampton and to our loyal viewers, everybody that says the "t" word owes a dollar, steve, two bucks in, i have a feeling this jar will be filled by the end of the show especially if the federal reserve does shock the world. let's go to hampton pearson in washington, d.c. >> the federal open market committee decided to continue the purchase of additional mortgage backed securities at a pace of 40 billion per month and long-term treasuries at $45 billion per month. the committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. on the economy, information received since the last meeting in september suggests economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace indicators of labor market conditions have shown further improvement but the unemployment rate remains elevated. available data suggests household spending and business fixed income while the recovery of the housing sector slowed
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somewhat in recent months. again on the economy, the committee sees the downside risk to the outlook for the economy and labor market as having diminished on net since last fallp. gone from this is the language from the september 19th statement that raised concerns about financial market conditioning tightening. the standard for when key short-term interest rates might go forward remains the same. they stay at 0 to a quarter percent. at least as long as the unemployment rate is 6.5% and inflation two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half a percentage point around that 2% target. and when the fomc decides to look forward, and remain policy accommodation it will take a balanced approach consistent with the longer run goals of maximum employment and inflation rate of 2%. voting again easter george the only dissenting vote. i'm hampton pearsoning back to you. >> take a look at what the markets are up to here. i've been watching the dow
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actually paired its losses and almost became positive. the dow is now down by 36 points. so it's a little lower than where it was going into the decision. let's get the reaction on this from david kelly. look, we're talking about a few points here and there but nonetheless what do we make of this, david? >> well, overall, it's a very similar statement to the last time around. i think acknowledging interest rates have come down in the stock market rally there's the potential for more growth coming from lower rates, lower mortgage rates and the stock market rally. that's a positive. i'll be interested to read the whole statement, any mention of lower gasoline prices which are positive and also the uncertainty about the rest of washington. that's really the big barrier to getting going on tapering right now, both how much the shutdown actually hurt the economy already and also what do we know about any agreement in january to keep the government open and to deal with that debt ceiling issue. i think that's going to be a big issue for the fed going forward. >> the ten-year is moving up and some of the other yields i'm
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noticing as well. jim, we went from 2.48% on the ten year, currently at 2.52%. what are the implication for the bond markets? >> i think the statement was somewhat disappointing for the bond market in respect that yields were at 2.7%, september 18th when the fed said they're too high, they're crimping the economy. now 2.49%, they took that statement out. really that's all it needs was 25 or so basis points to go from the rates are too high to rates are just fine? the fed is fine tuning it to a degree they shouldn't be fine tuning it. and maybe the bond market is disappointed about is the micro management we're seeing from the fed. also from hampton's comments i heard nothing about financial market conditions or nothing about the jeremy stein argument that the fed is worried about asset bubbles. seems like that's off the table right now, it's all about unemployment and payroll growth. >> and to be fair, and steve's reading the stuff, and i'll give you 30 more seconds, but i want to make a note of what you said,
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jim. it's a notable point which is this, going back to 1927 the federal reserve has probably been the worst organization in the world at predicting asset bubbles. their comments on whether or not we have assets bubbles would you give -- >> as opposed to which organization has done a great job at predicting asset bubbles? >> there hasn't been one organization. >> there hasn't been one that's been around since then. >> i'm saying nobody has done a good job. >> there have been plenty of people in organizations -- >> individuals that end up being the one we crow about in the world after the bubble. >> those people are not linked to making policy decisions. they are making bets, they are making speculation. >> right. >> the federal reserve, if we -- my only point was, and there's a lot of smart people on the fed, don't grin at me, i know where you're going. >> giving you a hard time. >> look back at '27 with the secret meeting between the uk and u.s., greenspan, whatever, we're he 10,000 points above where we were with the irrational exuberance comment i'm saying that federal reserve
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while smart, shouldn't be our guide post to whether or not we're in a bubble. that was my only comment. >> i agree. and the fed has itself said it's not very good at it. greenspan's whole mantra was we cannot predict these things. what we need to do is ultimately clean up their mess once they happen and other people have said you know what, the fed needs to be involved in doing it early to which some guys have said you know what, you want to punish the entire economy because of a certain market -- >> and not the chef? you can take that how you want -- >> your point is well made. >> it's an excellent agreement. debate to have. >> policy make es and what they do affects not just the u.s. economy but the world economy as well and i think it's very interesting points about the bank of international settlements, david, suggesting that maybe we could get another asian crisis because, you know, money is so cheap, so much borrowing going on by asian companies, suddenly rates start rising things could turn nasty. is there the possibility that this could be a bubble that gets
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out of hand and does end badly? >> well, i think that there is a good possibility that we're going to create asset bubbles around the world before we see inflation in core wages and in core cpi. the reason is, because this kind of excessive liquidity is helping upper income individuals who spend money, got more of a pro pensty to save, to invest, that is causing more investing in financial and other assets at the same time the kind of expansion which isn't really helping the average guy and so the wages aren't going up that much. we're not seeing a lot of growth in raw disposable income and that's holding down consumer prices. i think they are setting up conditions where you're much more likely to see an asset bubble before you see general inflation. >> the next question is, when are things going to change? when are they going to start tapering? didn't you do a cnbc if fed survey this week that said not until april. >> april is the new taper average date, although the distribution is all over the place in terms of very little consensus around that. all of 2014 no end of qe until
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the end of 2014 but 40% of our respondents have them doing qe into 2015. here's the story. i think what david was saying is true if that we don't really have too much more information than the fed. the fed doesn't have more information than we have in the following way. the fed is still looking to january and february to know which fiscal restraint may be holding down the economy. >> and we need the shutdown to shake out. >> the data from the shutdown and how much that's affecting, for example, today's adp data which showed continued weakening. so this is -- if this was an airplane we're in a holding pattern. we are circling over baltimore trying to land in washington some place. >> until the petrol runs out. >> which should be on southwest if you ever flown into bwi. >> the petrol doesn't run out. >> we don't know what petrol is. we have no idea what that is. >> jet fuel. >> david, okay, i understand the government shutdown and the impact on gdp, we talked about the $24 billion, let me throw
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out something insane, steve liesman sauntsers up to me and says what insane theory are you going to throw out in today's show. here goes. i understand the government shutdown impacted a lot of stuff. we also haven't had a giant hurricane or hurricanes, there have been positive factors this year shouldn't they mitigate out some of the negative impacts of the government shutdown to where the fed could almost say the economy is in a neutral position? >>. >> absolutely they should. the other thing that's really important here, to recognize it's not just about how fast demand is growing in the economy, how slowly supply is growing. we don't have any labor force growth to speak of and very little growth in the capital stock. that means this economy may not have the capability of growing quickly without inflation. so the unemployment rate is actually still coming down, even without this labor force -- even in not a great economy. fed needs to look at that. >> david, if you're right shouldn't we be seeing inflation? what you're saying is the fed is pushing the economy to move at a pace that's perhaps it's incapable of. the sustained rate of growth is one that is lower than the fed is aiming for, so we should see
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inflation in that regard and we don't. >> no. we're not yet. but we are seeing a bit of a pick-up in wages but my main point is we are so far away from a neutral monetary policy that if the fed wants to gradually move towards a new pal policy it will -- neutral policy it will take them years. to speed it up they're going to cause a lot of dislocation. given they're so far away with $1 trillion of qe and fed funds rate at close to zero they ought to get started now to get ahead of the inflation that will emerge in a few years if i'm right. >> to give you a market update to find out what the markets are up to, the dow turned positive just about a minute ago. the s&p has also paired its losses, keep things status quo. the s&p 500 gain this year by the way is now over 24% year to date. unbelievable. >> can we throw out -- do we have to go? the idea being that the s&p being 100 points higher, from when the fed was ready to taper.
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>> right. >> strikes me as something that i don't know that we get it in the statement jim bianco but i believe we're going to be attentive to comments from fed officials if they ever get around to speaking, i think there's a bit of a cap on comments at least from the board of governors given that jan snets yellen's confirmation hearing will be coming up, but that's where we would get it. somebody were to come up and say we've seen this market and we're concerned. >> there is something we need to be careful of here, i've said it before, steve you know this, we all know this, the stock market is not the economy, right? i mean, fewer people own stocks now than any time measured in 20 years so the fed is making asset holders wealthy, we can't view that as the prism of the overall u.s. economy. >> no, we can't do that, but we also have to recognize that what the fed is doing with their policy is pushing up the stock market. this whole discussion was about a weak economy that isn't doing much and it's not consistent with a 25% gain in the stock market for this year. this is about the fed pushing the market up with the fed also
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for from what we can tell not even concerned with addressing what they might be doing in the stock market. >> jim, have you seen profit margins? they're running at historic highs unlike almost every other cycle we've had they haven't come off. every time they hit the current level they come off quickly. we're remaining around 12.5%. the profit margin is huge. i think there's some justification for the current levels if you look at the profit margin levels. >> we do have to wrap it up. quickly get some reaction. >> e-mail me. we'll talk about this off-line. >> sorry about that. >> send him a letter. >> don't forget you owe some money, steve. we all do. let's get more reaction, mary thompson at the nyk se, rick santelli at the cme. mary, what are traders saying? >> a couple things. what you take is the housing recovery has slowed a bit, the labor market continues to improve and qe remains in place until there is clarity on the budget in washington. as a result, we've seen the market chop around a little bit.
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the dow recovering now retreating to the levels before the statement was released. same with the s&p 500. which right now is sitting just above the session lows. let's take a look at a couple rate sensitive sectors. the yield on the ten year has continued to decline in the release of statement. we're going to start with the banking index where it was a little bit below where it was before the fed statement, though, real estate or ret index has come off a little bit and utilities too slightly lower as again the yield on the ten year which rick will talk about more has continued to sclim. the reaction on wall street fairly modest again to the fed statement today. back to you. >> okay. mary thompson thank you for that. rick santelli, down at the cme, we're currently at 2.53% yield on the ten year. 2.48 going into the decision. what's the word? >> well, you know, if you look at all the charts even a two-year note yield up a basis point. the fives you can see, 10s, 48,
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arguably 49 made it to 53. a bit under 63, 60 for the long bond, closing in on 364. dollar index went negative and then positive. and now it's actually the better levels of the session actually and that was probably, you know, the gang that always understands that quantitative easing isn't good for the dollar. they were probable lay little overprepared on their positions. but the way i look at it, let's give the benefit of the doubt to the fed. oh, boy that hurts to say. they went from being in the economy may have been in the desert and thirsty but now it has so much water, water isn't tasting very good. they don't get a lot of mileage out of stocks. i guess you need a bigger dose when you're addicted. i think that jim bianco's breached areas that traders are talking about. they think ongoing qe will have a less positive effect on stocks and in terms of the interest rate market, it's probably just going to hover depending on any big move in stocks.
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>> did you say we're giving credit to the fed, like kobe bryant sake lebron james is better than me. >> credit to the fact that 09, 10, part of '11 the addiction was at a low level. i won't say i was for qe1, 2, 3 or on but if we use that as a control, the amount of the drug added had an outsized effect. what happens over time? either you give it a bigger dose or less thrills out of it and we're in the less thrill faction of the cycle in my opinion now. >> qe1 was a gateway drug. >> exactly. and now qe3 is like taking bayer aspirin. >> and a big smile out of steve liesman over here, just like this. >> he paid up. still ahead, big interview coming up. the biggest bond fund manager bill gross going to weigh in on what he heard the fed say. >> and later on could employer-based plans be the next
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victim of the obama care rollout. that's all ahead when "street signs" your official fed day show here on cnbc returns.
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qe continues at $85 billion, 40 and 45 respectively a month and mortgages and treasuries. bring in a guy that knows something about bonds, bill gross, co-founder and cio of
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pimco. all right, bill, december, right, we know the fed is not going to do anything then right before the holidays, not going to happen. january 24th, 25th, march 13th, i think april 24th and then june something who cares. are you putting wagers down on when this is really going to happen? >> well, i think we should, and, you know, i think a yellen fed, assuming she's confirmed and we're sure that she will be, will shift more from tapering to forward guidance. i mean ultimately, trillion dollars over a year in terms of asset purchases, mortgages and treasuries can't be sustained and we hear of problems from, you know, as high a level as the fed president of new york, bill dudley, when he speaks to the potential problems going forward of adding to the fed's balance sheet. in our opinion they will shift at some point, january, february, march, to, you know,
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to putting the burden on the private market for qe purchases. in other words, the trillion that it fed is buying will be shifted to the private market because that's the only realistic way to do it, cap short rates through guidance ands the private market will buy three, fours and fives based on the guidance and ultimately support 10s and 30-year mortgage rates the ultimate problem or has been in the past few months. >> what's interesting, the dow and the s&p opened at near record highs this morning, bill, right. currently they're sitting at session lows, post-decision even though the decision is status quo. it's an interesting reaction, losing steam to the tune of nearly triple digits for the dow now. are you surprised that there was not any more slightly hawkish commentary to keep alive those feelings that there will be a taper eventually? because particularly larry fink and others are saying the markets are starting to resemble a bubble. do you agree? >> well, i think the markets are
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bubbly, all assets are bubbly, bond prices, stock prices. steve liesman has pointed out profit margins are bubbly. to the extent that any of them can be sustained is the ultimate test in terms of tapering or, you know, the purchases by the fed in terms of adding to their balance sheet. yes, slightly bubbly. let me throw out something that will stagger the imagination i guess of your listeners and steve liesman, but the fed is in charge of regulatory policy and to the extent that buying a trillion dollars a year as a rather blunt instrument in terms of elevating ae ining perhaps b stock prices they're in charge of margin requirements and margin debt is at historic levels. to the extent they want to simmer down equity prices they don't have to attack it through tapering or through reducing a trillion dollars worth of purchases. they can raise margin requirements. >> okay. you said so much, kind of blew
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my mind, bill. all asset classes are slightly bubbly. there's slight bubbles which can sort of pop on their own peacefully and we go away and start over the next day and then bubbles which crash and destroy the world. which is this? >> well, let's shift to the bond market for a second. the bond market is bubbly because the policy rate of 25 basis points is artificially suppressed. investors and savers are not receiving what they have historically which in historical terms would be around 2, to 2.5%. that creates bubble and other bond market prices. is that bubble going to be popped? in our opinion no because that policy rate of 25 basis points will be guided forward by the yellen fed for the next two, three, perhaps four years and as long as they stay at 25 basis points, then, you know, these levels in terms of prices and low yields, four, fives, tens and 30s will probably be sustained. the stock market, brian, depends upon the growth rate of the
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economy. if these policies can generate two or 3% growth up until this point has only been 2%, but if they can generate 2 to 3% growth profits can expand. they can't stocks might have a more difficult problem. >> can the fed do that, bill? listen, first off, i would argue and push back it's corporate america that needs to do that, but i get your point about the fed trying to steer the economy within a certain direction. we get e-mails and tweets all the time from our viewers who are like i own stocks, done well the last few years. i'm nervous. i don't think the fed can manage the pullback on taper. seems to be this sort of nervousness out there. do you feel that? >> well, it is a difficult time. when prices are artificially, you know, elevated and when yields are artificially suppressed, you know, it raises a legitimate question as to what the appropriate rate is and a highly levered economy you bring up the point if terms of the viewers we're in a levered
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economy with debt to gdp, higher than historical averages. the critical question becomes when the fed decides to pull back, when the fed ultimately decides to raise the policy rate which we think is three or four years from now but when they do that, you know, can it sustain real growth, can it sustain low unemployment, can it sustain inflation at 2%? you know, when they raise interest rates and by how much. so we think for a long, long time that financial repression will be with us. is that a good thing? we don't think it's a good thing but we think it's something you should look forward to. >> so give us actionable advice. people tune in to listen to what you say. what would you say on the back of all of this? bring it together for us. >> let me give you three quick ideas, mandy. >> yeah. >> in terms of the bond mark. closed in funds that investors can buy, look at baron's on a friday or saturday and see what tund ifs are trading at in terms
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of discount and yields are. blackrock, a friendly competitor, has a build america closed fund, dbn on the exchange and yields, municipal bonds double a rated and long-term by the way, but, you know, certainly a very high yield and attractive. pimco has one, pty, pimco corporate opportunity yields 8%. in the municipal space tax free one called vmo which, you know, provides a 7 to 8% tax free yield. there are ways to beat this 1 to 2 to 3% world in a relatively riskless space. >> all right. good ideas. we like the actionable ideas. thank you very much. >> market reset here and tell our folks on the radio and on the tv what exactly is going on ins terms of the market. okay. so this is where we were sitting going into the decision to keep things as status quo, in other words no taper here from the fed today. the dow was down by about 28 points at the time, it is
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currently down by about 90 points. okay. we're losing steam here. as for what was happening with the ten year, we went into the decision at 2.48%. we have actually moved up. the dollar is spiking. gold, which was positive, prefed decision, is now losing steam. we are currently down. there we go by about $8. up by $8 before, now down $8. brian. >> i mean any reason? is he still there. bill, still there? >> that would be a no. >> that would be a no. i think -- >> yeah. >> bill, are you there? >> i'm here. >> oh, thank you. all we heard was bars and tones, our internal comments for things are screwed up. do you have any idea -- can you yell at somebody on your trading floor and ask why stocks are down? any reason we've taken a turn for the worse? i'm putting you on the spot i know. >> i didn't know we were still connected. please repeat. >> i was going to say, i hate to put you on the spot, like in a
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windowless studio and not on your trading floor, any reason you think stocks have taken a significant turn down in the last couple minutes given the fact that the fed did what we thought they were going to do? >> yeah. >> there's no real reason other than stocks have done very, very well and at some point, you know, there's a space for a retraction in some of the gains. i think, you know, going forward, stocks are dependent as i've mentioned on the prospects for real growth in the economy. to the extent it's higher than 2% they'll continue to googo higher. to the extent the fed continues to taper they'll do well as well. when the tapering starts, and when growth or if growth subtracts from that 2% magical level in our opinion stocks may not do as well. >> bill, thank you for throwing you on the spot here. >> okay. >> carl icahn tweet, when you tweet out a couple days about
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helping the world here. >> yes. >> what was your take on that? why did you senz that out? >> the tweet didn't say anything about money. i appreciate carl icahn he's been polite about this and thank you. i did say something about time and i said mr. icahn and myself and all of us, you too, you and mandy, should spend more time helping others as opposed to necessarily writing checks. now that you bring it up, my wife sue and i have our own andrew carnegie pledge. not the buffet pledge but andrew carnegie pledge, to give all of our money away before we died. carnegie says a wealthy person dies disgraced if they go to their maker with one penny. sue and i are on our way. that's the money part, hopefully not the dying part. >> good charity work. bill, i'm glad to see the government shutedown end because
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people can see your stamp collection in d.c. that was the biggest downside of the shutdown personally. >> thank you. >> thank you. the dow is if now officially down by triple digits. the fed can't win, do as expected, markets sell off. >> bill might have moved the stocks down when he said there's every asset class looks bubbly. >> and also ahead we'll get another check on what gold is doing as we said down post fed decision. >> and tonight we get monster earnings reports today. we're going to run you through the winners and losers and numbers when they cross between 3 and 5:00 because a smart hand somt guy will be delivering those numbers to you in "closing bell." >> who? >> this guy. we're back after this. so i c an reach ally bank 24/7, but there are no branches? 24/7. i'm sorry, i'm just really reluctant to try new things. really? what's wrong with trying new things? look! mommy's new vacuum! (cat screech) you feel that in your muscles? i do...
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i've got a big date, but my sinuses are acting up. it's time for advil cold and sinus. [ male announcer ] truth is that won't relieve all your symptoms. new alka seltzer plus-d relieves more sinus symptoms than any other behind the counter liquid gel. oh what a relief it is. after the decision not to change the monthly asset purchase program at the fed, we have actually seen the markets digest this. first paired their losses and now they're down. we have a lot of about 89 points on the dow, the nasdaq off and the s&p is down by about 12 points. both the dow and s&p opened at record highs. the nasdaq opened at a fresh 13-year high, records everywhere, russell 2 k, defense stocks hitting all-time highs.
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the reaction to the status quo at the fed is to the downside, brian. >> you know what else to the downside, gold price, off by a little more than 9.40 now, 1336. to jackie deangelis at the nymex and more. >> good afternoon, brian. gold prices closed just about an hour ago with the 1349 level. after the fed statement came out, they actually broke through 1350 and were holding. but it looked like it took a little while for the market to sort of react to that statement an then we saw gold prices dive as we saw the dollar start to rise. as you mentioned, we hit about 1335 on gold and now we're slowly coming back up. traders had high hypes for gold today. they were looking for a close above 1350 saying the next stop could potentially be 1363, but obviously with the status quo statement we didn't make it there. back over to you. >> jackie, thank you very much. all right still ahead on "street signs," much more on this post-fed sell-off. >> and also obama care on life support. how employer based plans could now be the next victim in the
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failed rollout. you have to stick around to hear the details.
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okay. let's take a look at what those
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markets are up to. to refresh your memory at the top of the hour, in other words about 35 minutes ago, the fed decided to keep its asset purchase program as is, $85 billion a month. but the market is actually sold off. this is an interesting reaction folks. let's find out why exactly with jeff from raymond james. jeff, what is your reading on the selloff in the markets? >> i think bill gross had it generally correct and precisely wrong. we've come a long way in a fairly short period of time where he was precisely wrong while no one can time the market on a short-term basis, last week all ten of the s&p macro sectors were two standard deviations above their 50-day moving average, way overbought, only happened twice since 1990. as of yesterday the price ossie later which measures the enthusiasm with what the hot money is doing with their money, hit levels only seen four times since 1990. so the indicators are calling for some kind of a pause or pullback here. the reaction to the fed
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nonstatement is just the cause for the pullback. >> so, you said a lot there, jeff. are you -- you know, we sort of standard deviation and my head started to spin a little bit. give us the layman's terms of what you believe is going to happen between now and the end of the year. >> i think you will get a pullback, don't know if it starts right here or another couple weeks. actually targeted the pullback late last summer although we only got about 5% of the 10% i was looking for. targeted mid november for a pullback. again, probably somewhere between 5 and 10%. i think we're going to be higher by the end of the year because i unlike a lot of other people think the economy is stronger than the surface figure suggests and i continue to think the performance anxiety going into year end where portfolio managers not only have performance pressure, they have bonus pressure and ultimately they have job pressure i think it's going to make them pay up to stocks. >> we did a cnbc fed survey this week, jack, it was suggesting
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the consensus view on wall street at least is that we're not going to get a taper until april and yet i'm reading and admittedly on twitter, i don't know whether the verification is really intact but john hillsrat, a fed watcher is one who is claiming the taper is on the table for december and that's possibly why we're seeing the stock market sell off. what do you think about that? was there anything in the fed decision, the statement today, that made you feel that we could get a taper in december of all times? >> inno. i didn't see that. but the one argument for it could potentially be that chairman bernanke does want to start reversing this huge experiment that he started before he steps down, so that could be maybe the only argument for it. >> but would december be a bad time to do that. middle of the holiday period, just before he hands off to somebody else at the fed. would that be a bad time to do it? >> i think so. given that, you know, already we're worried about christmas
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selling with consumer confidence down as much as it is, retail sales account for depending on the industry between 20 and 40% of annual sales, so it is an important element. generally the fed has stayed out of the way in december. i don't recall a single december where they've actually imposed their policy. so i think it may have more to do with the fact that -- and bill gross mentioned this, this policy can't go on forever. it will have to start tapering some time next year. what i find is, the fed would love to keep this policy in place as long as possible. really in my view the only thing standing in the way is froth in the market. >> jeff, i know we're running out of time, trying to make sense of this, the reason i cape up with our taper jar sideways glance because by talking about -- i'm trying to ask this question by not slamming my own
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company. we're giving huge credence to it, right? we justify it as a major market moving event. is there a chance they taper and life goes on the way it has been? >> i think that's exactly right. the last time the bull market in bonds ended was 1953, 1954 interest rate went up and the stock market went up because interest rates were going up for the right reason, the economy getting better. i've been adamant since august no taper in september and probably no taper this year. i think by the time we get into next year the economy resets and i think the removing of the tapering i think is going to be a nonevent. >> it's going to be jawbone to death. jeff and jack, good to see you. thank you very much. up next a make-over masterpiece, one stock completely reinvented it itself and it continues to absolutely crush it. we're going to bring you that name ahead. >> the cheap seats to the world series which by the way are neither cheap nor seats. but first to an always stand-up guy, bill griffeth, what's ahead? >> i saw the price for those
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seats. we'll get to that coming up. obama care web glitches as you know have been the big target today on capitol hill but the ceo of e-health has offered to handle enrollment for free while they fix healthcare.gov and he will join us exclusively to talk about that offer. full coverage of the president's speech where he'll make his case for the patience on his signature health care law and did those new pastries at starbucks pay off for the coffee maker. earnings out after the bell and ceo howard schultz will break them down for us coming up on "closing bell." "street signs" returns right after this. stay tuned. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action.
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but i am so stuffed up, i can't rest. [ male announcer ] nyquil cold and flu liquid gels don't unstuff your nose. they don't? alka seltzer plus night fights your worst cold symptoms, plus has a decongestant. [ inhales deeply ] oh. what a relief it is. all right. earlier today i tweeted out a mystery chart of a small cap i never heard of. went from 8 to 90 in a couple years, wex, 52 all-time high today, third quarter earnings above estimates. the first main based company i can remember talking about, mobile payment company focusing on truckers and truck stock. $8 stock five years ago and now
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91. wild day for garr mon, and up its full year forecast. the company seeing improved results in its aviation and fitness lines, up nearly 40% in the past six months. should you navigate garrmon into your portfolio? let's begin talking numbers, andy bush, and joining us on the technicals, gina sanchez on the fundamentals as well. gina, ladies first on "street signs." interesting because a lot of people said garr min would be a buggy whip, this company run out of town by smart phones and no reason to live. proved a lot of people wrong. >> it really, really has. and they have continued to innovate. what i find interesting about garrmin while they did beat expectations on average actually relative to the industry, their earnings growth wasn't that great. however, they have great net margins relative to the industry
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and cheap relative to the industry. one thing i would say they continued to put out new and innovative technologies and continue to be the first to introduce. for example, they just introduced the s 4 a wearable golf watch which has over 30,000 international courses and tells you exactly how far away you are from the front, middle and back of the green. 30,000 different courses. that kind of innovation is the kind of thing i'm looking for and their growth in the fitness market has been tremendous. 25% growth there. and these are high margin devices an you're looking at a company with great operating margins. so you might see a pullback soon but i do think that it's a long-term buy. >> all right. andy, garrmin stock looking good lately. gina says long-term buy. what do the charts say to you some. >> the charts are interesting. obviously garrmin against its competition like tremble navigation, really outperformed, up 25% against tremble and
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that's the first chart i got for you. on the second chart it's been in an uptrend channel, really hitting the top end of that channel. that's a little bit for me, like a whoa, i don't want to get involved with this just here. so for me, i think a pullback may be down to the 44 level, bottom end of that channel. i would rather buy it if the stock market is a little fluffy up here, you know, like i think it is, this is one of those stocks where it's -- as gina said it's really great for the long term, short term not good at these levels. >> but two long-term buyers on a company everybody said it's a buggy whip. thank you very much for joining us. just goes to show the conventional wisdom is not always conventional or wise. check out our on-line edition on yahoo! finance. >> let's get back to steve liesman. i want to ask you a question with regards to why the market is selling off. i mean obviously we got the comment from -- >> why exactly and the market should never be in the same sentence. >> you're an economist so exactly doesn't come into it
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tale. >> i give you probabilities. >> is it possible, throwing it out there, the comment from bill gross all asset classes are slightly bubbly. >> he did use a modifier. >> i don't think that's why the market sees this as hawkish. >> or still on the table before the end of the year. >> i think that's a possibility and what i'm reading, for example, ward mccarthy here, is saying slightly less dovish. the fed gave us [ inaudible ]. >> slightly less dovish? >> the fed gave us -- that may be the best remark you've made in the time i've known you. >> it is not. >> it is. which speaks poorly of the other comments you made. three tests the fed gave us for why it did not taper when it might taper again. fiscal restraint, financial restraint and confidence in the economic outlook. okay. the fed removed concern about financial conditions and didn't mention mortgage rates so what happened is one of the three things the fed gave us, it's
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removed now. so -- and it kept that language and said you know, we can still do this at any time if we get confidence in the economic outlook. brian, another smart thing he said actually come to think of it, in the segment -- >> don't act surprised. >> i want credit where it's due. >> you said -- >> actually. >> i didn't mean that -- >> credit works to you. when you said we still have this happening in january and february with the debt ceiling and the -- >> yep. >> i don't thinks the fed may have that kind of confidence to move ahead. plus i think mandy was saying earlier that we need to have the data in october an know -- i still think the things that stayed the feds hand in september, will stay them again in december. but it did remove one of the three things. >> if i said this, i can't remember if i did, i'll assume i did and correct myself for being wrong, december there is a news conference, right. for some reason i had in my head there wasn't. no way in heck they're going to do anything without the press conference. there is a press conference in
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december. >> they can do it in december but again -- >> the reason i'm asking is, there's four press conferences a year for the fed. there's meetings and decisions they have which do not have a press conference. can we rule out the nonpress conference meetings? we can narrow it down to was pretty smart in staying the hand of the taper because the economy did weaken and we had the financial fights that the fiscal fights -- >> they look real clever in hindsight is what you're trying to say. >> to think they would do it in november ahead of another january showdown doesn't make sense. >> steve, exactly what we wanted from you. thank you. >> you are the fed owl. you've got a graduation cap and eating a tootsi pop. >> i'm on the show and he
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insults me. >> do you think you're safe from the obama care rollout? we'll explain. >> the high price of the tickets to the sox game tonight. love you, steve. i mean that. the american dream is of a better future, a confident retirement. those dreams, there's just no way we're going to let them die. ♪ like they helped millions of others. by listening. planning. working one on one. that's what ameriprise financial does. that's what they can do with you. that's how ameriprise puts more within reach. ♪ afghanistan in 2009.
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. the chairman referred to outages this weekend and again today. i would suggest to the committee that if you read the statement of verizon who hosts the cloud service, it is the verizon server that failed, not healthcare.gov. it affected not only hhs but other customers. >> that was health and human secretary kathleen sebelius calling out verizon for some of the obama care rollout. can you see the stock reacting. now down 1% on the day. >> if you get health insurance from your employer and you don't think any of this matters to you, just wait. because it may be still hitting you in the wallet and it may be sooner than you think. scott is here with the story. >> look at your open enrollment guide. we should make clear at the outset, premium increases for employer-provided health care is nothing new. over the last decade your cost has gone up 89% according to the
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kizer foundation. your employer's cost has gone up 77%. chances are you will see another increase when you get your open enrollment materials in the coming days. we're seeing double digit increases at universal. one says it's the result of obama care. >> if you put in preexisting conditions, it's not insurance anymore. i mean, what happens -- the analogy would be, your house starts to burn. you call the insurance company immediately and say, i'd like household insurance. oh, they say, okay, sure. we asked our global cfo about those. two-thirds of those who responded said they see employee
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health care costs rising but half said it had little to do with the health care law. they are predicting 5% to 7% on average, in line with last year. the other thing to look for is your deduckibtible as employer tries to shift more costs to you, and health screenings. a lot has been going on for a while and now we just have something new to blame it on, the affordable care act. indeed, it has changed the way some have been designed. for example, the preexisting conditions and the fact you can have your kid on until they're 26. >> we have to leave it there. >> up next, the price you'll pay to possibly see something that hasn't happened since 1918.
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to put it bluntly, boston could do something it has not done since babe ruth was still there. win a world series at home. remember in '04 and '07, the wins came on the road. if you want to see it, it will cost you the same as babe's contract for that year. the cheapest seat, quote, which is actually just a standing room only ticket, is about $765. you've got tickets going for more than $9,000. that does include a seat.
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>> i do believe it is the red sox, according to our bostonian producer. >> our producer is from boston, but my mother is from st. louis, so, go cardinals. >> thank you for watching "street signs." "closing bell" is next. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. i'm bill griffeth. the market still trying to figure out what the market is saying. the federal reserve said the economy is growing moderately. job growth picked up a little built. housing stumbled over the last period since their last meeting. net-net, no change. >> no change. we weren't expecting a change but it's about the data. once again the fed reiterates it's focused on the data. it has been a big day for the markets because going into the fed meeting, not much and all of a sudden we sell off after the meeting.

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